Summer’s Deadliest Walks: New Study Reveals Which States Pose the Greatest Risk to Pedestrians
Pedestrian deaths declined across the United States during the first half of 2025, but a decade of crash data shows that the danger facing people on foot remains heavily concentrated in particular states, cities and roadway corridors.
An analysis conducted by H&P Law found that New Mexico recorded the highest population-adjusted rate of pedestrian-involved fatal crashes during the summer months from 2015 through 2024. Its rate of 9.44 crashes per 100,000 residents was more than five times the 1.73 rate recorded in Minnesota, the lowest-ranked state in the analysis.
The state rankings were based on fatal motor vehicle crashes that reportedly involved pedestrians during June, July and August. The data measures pedestrian-involved fatal crashes rather than the total number of pedestrian deaths, an important distinction when comparing the state results.
The research also found that August was the most dangerous month of summer nationwide, Memphis led major U.S. cities by pedestrian fatality rate, and Florida accounted for half of the 10 roadways with the largest pedestrian death totals.
Summer Pedestrian Safety by the Numbers
The national data presents a mixed picture. Fatalities have begun to decline, but pedestrian deaths remain substantially above the levels recorded a decade ago.
National pedestrian fatality trends
| Measure | Finding |
|---|---|
| Pedestrians killed in the first half of 2025 | 3,024 |
| Change from the first half of 2024 | 10.9% decrease |
| Pedestrians killed nationwide in 2024 | 7,148 |
| Change from 2023 to 2024 | 4.3% decrease |
| Difference compared with 2016 | Approximately 20% higher |
| Estimated first-half 2025 societal and economic cost | More than $40 billion |
| Estimated societal cost per pedestrian death | Approximately $13.2 million |
The 10.9% decline during the first six months of 2025 was the largest annual reduction recorded since the Governors Highway Safety Association began tracking state-level pedestrian fatality trends.
However, the national decrease was not shared equally across the country.
- Pedestrian deaths increased in 24 states during the first half of 2025.
- Fatalities declined in 23 states and Washington, D.C.
- Three states reported no change.
- Reductions in California, Maryland, New Mexico, New York and Alabama helped lower the national total.
The results indicate that a falling national number can coexist with worsening conditions in nearly half of the states.
New Mexico Recorded the Highest Summer Crash Rate
New Mexico ranked first with 9.44 pedestrian-involved fatal crashes per 100,000 residents during the three summer months. South Carolina placed second at 7.94, followed by Mississippi at 7.03.
Six of the 10 highest-ranked states were located in the South, while New Mexico, Arizona and California represented the Southwest and West.
Most dangerous states for pedestrians in summer
| Rank | State | June | July | August | Total Summer Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | 3.15 | 2.91 | 3.38 | 9.44 |
| 2 | South Carolina | 2.72 | 2.50 | 2.72 | 7.94 |
| 3 | Mississippi | 1.97 | 2.41 | 2.65 | 7.03 |
| 4 | Arizona | 2.36 | 2.27 | 2.31 | 6.94 |
| 5 | Louisiana | 2.26 | 2.11 | 2.48 | 6.85 |
| 6 | Florida | 2.16 | 2.17 | 2.24 | 6.57 |
| 7 | California | 1.82 | 2.04 | 2.11 | 5.97 |
| 8 | Delaware | 1.05 | 2.09 | 2.76 | 5.89 |
| 9 | Alabama | 1.76 | 1.90 | 2.06 | 5.72 |
| 10 | Texas | 1.78 | 1.92 | 1.89 | 5.59 |
Oklahoma ranked just outside the top 10 with a total summer rate of 5.57 per 100,000 residents.
Several findings stand out within the monthly results:
- New Mexico posted the highest June rate at 3.15.
- New Mexico also recorded the highest August rate among the listed states at 3.38.
- South Carolina maintained consistently high rates across all three months, ranging from 2.50 to 2.72.
- Delaware’s rate rose from 1.05 in June to 2.76 in August.
- Mississippi increased from 1.97 in June to 2.65 in August.
- Texas was the only top-10 state whose August rate was slightly lower than its July rate.
Delaware’s placement demonstrates why population-adjusted data matters. Despite having a much smaller population than California, Texas or Florida, it recorded the eighth-highest summer rate nationwide.
Minnesota and Other Northern States Recorded the Lowest Rates
Minnesota ranked as the safest state in the analysis, with 1.73 pedestrian-involved fatal crashes per 100,000 residents during summer.
The other lowest-ranked states included:
- Idaho
- New Hampshire
- South Dakota
- Massachusetts
- Iowa
- Rhode Island
- Vermont
- Nebraska
- Wisconsin
The lower end of the ranking was dominated by states in the Midwest and Northeast, while the highest rates were more concentrated in the South and Southwest.
The difference between the two extremes was substantial. New Mexico’s 9.44 rate was approximately 5.5 times Minnesota’s 1.73 rate.
That gap suggests that pedestrian danger is influenced by more than population alone. Roadway design, traffic speed, development patterns, pedestrian infrastructure and exposure to high-volume roads may all contribute to the large differences between states.
August Was the Deadliest Month of Summer
Pedestrian-involved fatal crashes increased as summer progressed.
Fatal pedestrian-involved crashes by month, 2015 to 2024
| Month | Fatal Crashes |
|---|---|
| June | 4,869 |
| July | 5,168 |
| August | 5,709 |
| Total | 15,746 |
August recorded:
- 840 more fatal crashes than June
- 541 more fatal crashes than July
- Approximately 17% more fatal crashes than June
Across all three summer months, the analysis identified 15,746 pedestrian-involved fatal crashes and 14,646 pedestrian deaths.
The increase in August was also visible at the state level. Nevada, for example, ranked 14th overall but entered the 10 most dangerous states during July and August. August produced the state’s highest monthly rate.
Speed Creates a Rapidly Rising Risk of Death
The chance that a pedestrian will survive a crash falls sharply as impact speed increases.
Pedestrian risk of death by impact speed
| Impact Speed | Average Risk of Death |
|---|---|
| 23 mph | 10% |
| 42 mph | 50% |
| 58 mph | 90% |
An increase from 23 mph to 42 mph raises the average risk of death from one in 10 to one in two. At 58 mph, the average risk reaches nine in 10.
The figures help explain why arterial roads and multilane corridors can be particularly dangerous. Pedestrians may be required to cross wide roadways where vehicle speeds are well above levels associated with survivable outcomes.
Summer may intensify those conditions as vacation travel, tourism, recreation and local events place additional vehicles on already congested corridors.
Impairment Contributed to More Than 1,500 Summer Deaths
Alcohol and drug impairment appeared on both sides of fatal pedestrian crashes.
The data showed that:
- 29% of pedestrians aged 16 and older who were killed had a blood alcohol concentration of 0.08% or higher.
- 16% of fatal pedestrian crashes involved an impaired driver.
- 1,531 pedestrians were killed during summer between 2015 and 2024 in crashes involving a pedestrian under the influence of alcohol, drugs or medication.
California recorded the largest number of these deaths, followed by:
- Texas
- North Carolina
- Arizona
- South Carolina
- Colorado
Summer festivals, sporting events, holiday gatherings and nightlife activity can increase the likelihood that impaired drivers and impaired pedestrians are present near busy roads at the same time.
One in Four Pedestrian Deaths Involves a Hit-and-Run
Hit-and-run crashes represented another major component of the pedestrian death total.
In 2024, 1,749 pedestrian fatalities involved drivers who fled the scene. Over the most recent five-year period examined, approximately 25% of pedestrian deaths occurred in hit-and-run crashes.
During the summer months from 2015 through 2024, 3,407 pedestrians were killed in hit-and-run collisions.
States with the largest summer hit-and-run totals
| State | Pedestrian Fatalities |
|---|---|
| California | 566 |
| Texas | 421 |
| Florida | 261 |
The remaining states with some of the highest totals were Arizona, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia and Tennessee.
California alone accounted for roughly one in six of the 3,407 summer hit-and-run pedestrian deaths identified in the analysis.
Memphis Had the Highest Major-City Fatality Rate
The city-level analysis examined communities with populations above 350,000.
Memphis ranked first with 69.5 pedestrian deaths per 100,000 residents between 2015 and 2024. Albuquerque followed at 62.5, while Tucson ranked third at 55.9.
Major cities with the highest pedestrian fatality rates
| Rank | City | Fatality Rate per 100,000 | Total Fatalities |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memphis, Tennessee | 69.5 | 430 |
| 2 | Albuquerque, New Mexico | 62.5 | 350 |
| 3 | Tucson, Arizona | 55.9 | 306 |
| 4 | Phoenix, Arizona | 52.4 | 864 |
| 5 | Detroit, Michigan | 47.7 | 302 |
| 6 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 45.3 | 165 |
| 7 | Tampa, Florida | 44.4 | 179 |
| 8 | Atlanta, Georgia | 44.0 | 225 |
| 9 | Miami, Florida | 43.9 | 200 |
| 10 | Dallas, Texas | 42.9 | 559 |
The rate and raw total rankings tell different stories.
Memphis had the highest population-adjusted rate, but Phoenix recorded the largest number of deaths, with 864. Dallas had the second-largest total among the top 10 cities at 559, followed by Memphis at 430.
Eight of the 10 cities were located in the South or Southwest. Detroit and Miami were the only exceptions to that broader geographic concentration, depending on regional classification.
Florida Accounted for Half of the Deadliest Roadways
The roadway rankings were dominated by high-speed highways and urban corridors in Florida, California and Texas.
Roadways with the most pedestrian fatalities
| Rank | Roadway and County | Fatalities |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I-35, Travis County, Texas | 80 |
| 2 | U.S. 19, Pinellas County, Florida | 79 |
| 3 | I-5, San Diego County, California | 78 |
| 4 | U.S. 19, Pasco County, Florida | 76 |
| 5 | I-10, Los Angeles County, California | 57 |
| 6 | State Road 50, Orange County, Florida | 57 |
| 7 | I-15, San Bernardino County, California | 53 |
| 8 | U.S. 41, Hillsborough County, Florida | 51 |
| 9 | I-45, Harris County, Texas | 48 |
| 10 | U.S. 41, Manatee County, Florida | 47 |
The top 10 roadways accounted for a combined 626 pedestrian fatalities.
By state:
- Florida had five roadways in the top 10.
- California had three.
- Texas had two.
- Florida’s five corridors accounted for 310 fatalities.
- California’s three corridors accounted for 188.
- Texas’ two corridors accounted for 128.
I-35 in Travis County ranked first with 80 deaths, but it exceeded U.S. 19 in Pinellas County by only one fatality and I-5 in San Diego County by two.
Nevada Ranked Outside the Top 10 but Continued to Face Concentrated Risk
Nevada ranked 14th nationally with a summer pedestrian-involved fatal crash rate of 5.17 per 100,000 residents.
From June through August between 2015 and 2024, the state recorded:
- 826 fatal collisions of all types
- 169 crashes involving pedestrians
- 161 pedestrian deaths
- 38 summer pedestrian-involved fatalities in Las Vegas
- 17 in Reno
Clark County accounted for much of the statewide burden. Historically, it has represented approximately two-thirds of Nevada traffic fatalities and as much as 85% of pedestrian deaths.
Nevada recorded 112 pedestrian deaths in 2024, surpassing the previous record of 107 in 2023.
The state showed early improvement in 2025:
| Period | Pedestrian Deaths |
|---|---|
| January through June 2024 | 62 |
| January through June 2025 | 50 |
| Change | 12 fewer deaths |
Clark County accounted for 44 of the 50 pedestrian deaths recorded through June 30, 2025.
National Progress Has Not Eliminated Local Hotspots
The findings from H&P Law show that the national decline in pedestrian deaths does not reflect uniform improvement.
New Mexico’s summer rate remained more than five times higher than Minnesota’s. August recorded the largest monthly crash total. Memphis led major cities by fatality rate, Phoenix led the listed cities by raw deaths, and Florida appeared five times in the roadway top 10.
The data also points to several overlapping risk factors:
- Higher pedestrian and vehicle activity during summer
- More inexperienced teen drivers on the road
- Impact speeds associated with sharply higher death risks
- Alcohol and drug impairment
- Hit-and-run crashes
- Concentration of fatalities along major urban corridors
- Greater danger during dusk, nighttime and low-light conditions
Recent national declines represent measurable progress. However, the decade-long geographic patterns show that pedestrians in certain states and cities continue to face risks far above those experienced elsewhere in the country.
